We are living in a strange moment in the world, with two giant forces pushing in opposite directions simultaneously. On the one hand, the war in the Middle East has driven up energy costs and reignited the inflation that was so difficult to control. On the other hand, the artificial intelligence boom is injecting a dynamism not seen in years. The result of both forces seems to have a net effect. It doesn't. Beneath that apparent calm, the world is splitting in two.

On one side are the countries and companies that managed to ride the technological wave. Korea grew 7.5% (4x what was expected) driven by semiconductors. Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam are following the same path. On the other side are those who import energy and are integrated into that value chain; they pay the shock and receive none of the benefits. This is an uncomfortable fact for our region, Latin America is not in either of the two leading groups. We are neither large energy exporters nor a global technological hub; we navigate in the middle, exposed to the costs and far from the rewards.

There are three things worth highlighting from this report. The first: disinflation has stalled. For the first time in two years, several central banks are raising rates again, not lowering them. Anyone who built their 2026 plan assuming cheaper money has a pending conversation. The second: the price of oil is deceptively contained. It is being sustained by depleting inventories that are already nearing lows and remains exposed to intermittent agreements among the protagonists of the conflict in the Middle East. The third, and perhaps the most counterintuitive: the AI boom itself is both the engine of growth and the greatest risk. If productivity expectations are corrected downwards, inflated valuations could trigger a correction that spreads far beyond the technology sector.

What does all this mean for an average Dominican or Latin American company? That the margin of error is shrinking. With rates no longer falling, volatile energy, and an increasingly narrow global fiscal margin, financial decisions that previously tolerated certain improvisation are unforgivable today. Debt structure, exchange rate exposure, tax planning, cash flow resilience in the face of an external shock—all of this shifts from simple planning to a matter of survival.

Translating this macroeconomics into concrete decisions (what to protect, what to adjust, where to position oneself) is exactly the type of conversation that generates the most value in moments like this. And it is precisely at such a moment that an external perspective makes the difference.